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Top 25 for Travis

1. Alabama (9-0), clinched SEC West with win over LSU
2. Texas (9-0), Iowa’s loss means they won’t be passed by any other unbeaten
3. Florida (9-0), Gouge This
4. TCU (9-0), a near 3 TD favorite over Utah
5. Cincinnati (9-0), last game at Pittsburgh may boost them
6. Boise St. (9-0), pretty much locked to this spot
7. Georgia Tech (9-1), squeeked out an OT win
8. Pittsburgh (8-1), nothing fancy just victories
9. LSU (7-2), lose and move up
10. Oregon (7-2), trap game
11. USC (7-2), could still make the Rose Bowl
12. Iowa (9-1), going from National Title to Capital One Bowl in 2 weeks
13. Utah (8-1), outside shot at a BCS at-large with win at TCU
14. Houston (8-1), barely hanging on
15. Miami (7-2), big 2nd half
16. Arizona (6-2), did what they were supposed to against Washington St.
17. Ohio St. (8-2), showdown for the Rose Bowl
18. Oklahoma St. (7-2), nice blowout win
19. Penn St. (8-2), two home blowout losses to the good teams in the Big 10
20. Virginia Tech (6-3), nice rebound against East Carolina
21. South Florida (6-2), earned a bye
22. West Virginia (7-2), big one at Cincinnati
23. Oregon St. (6-3), normal 2nd half surge
24. Stanford (6-3), Toby Gerhard is a Heisman candidate
25. Clemson (6-3), C.J. Spiller is becoming an All-American
I can not really complain with Travis’ top 25 list.  I’d flip Boise and Cinci and drop Houston behind Miami and U of A.

Real World

Arizona played Stanford and came from behind to win 43-38 on a long run by Nic Grigsby on third and forever.  Nick Foles tore it up passing going 40 for 51 with 415 yards and 3 TD’s in an old fashioned Pac 10 shootout.

PS2 World

My beloved Cats had a much easier time with Stanford in PS2′ville.  Nick Foles actually makes his first extended appearance for me in this game as I got fed up with interceptions with Scott.  Had to see if I could change something.  Here are the stats for the game.

#22 UA    45                                vs                                Stanford   14

Total Offence                       405                                                298

Rush Yards                             57                                                   -3

Pass Yards                            348                                                301

Turnovers                                 6                                                       6

Matt Scott       12 for 24   243 yards   1 TD   3 picks                                                                                                                                          Nick Foles    11 for 15   105 yards   2 td 0 picks                                                                                                                                                 Grigsby       13 att 47 yards 1 td                                                                                                                                                                              Gronkowski    10 rec 237 yards 3 TD                                                                                                                                                             Ross 3 INT

The Following week Arizona played UCLA.

Real World

The Wildcats had 5 turnovers and still somehow managed to find a way to win the game.  This would have never happened when I attended U of A.  In a game like this they would have been blitzed.  Luckily Stoops has built a program with depth………………………well UCLA also kinda sucks.

PS2 World

(Here are my notes I took while drunk and playing)

UCLA 26 at Arizona 45

Real horseshit game as far as interceptions are concerned  tipped off receivers hands and insane jumps

Player of game

Gronk had over 240 receiving with 1 td  and fumble return for TD

Major computer catch up game

Finally started Foles and he had an awful game with 2 TD’s and 5 picks  will stick with him at QB as before the game he had better TD to INT ratio than Scott.  2 TD’s to 0 int.  Also higher completion percentage.  UCLA game was just ridiculous for picks.

Now 21^st in Coaches and 14^th in Media Poll,  15^th in BCS,  still no love.   Teams I have beat however are 3^rd/4^th and 6^th/9^th.   I have Number 1 SOS and I still can’t crack top 10.  WTF?

I will do a write up on the game play of 2010.  But here is a quick breakdown.  The game is much more fun when playing a friend.  When playing the computer the computer to try to even things out has its defense make insane interceptions (Everyone has Deion Sanders recovery speed with Jerry Rice hands and Michael Jordan hops, even linebackers!).   It is impossible to hit the seams in cover 2 as somehow the first corner jumps up 70 inches on a pass that does not go at a correct angle from where you are in the pocket so somehow it ends up over the first  corners head.  Sneak peak to the future for an example. At one point with Foles in a game I was 25 for 28 with like 3oo some yards 2 TD’s and 3 picks.  That’s right.  Every pass I threw was caught.  Of the 3 interceptions 2 occured when I went deep when I caught them in a blitz only once to have the Corner somehow out run, after he was beat by 3 to 4 yards, Terrell Turner to the ball and pick it off.  And once a Safety catch and pass Gronkowski and out jump him for it when he started 5 yards behind.  The third was on a screen pass where they had the ball hit off a blockers back into the arms of a charging corner for a pick 6 (third straight pick by the way) for their only Touchdown of the game.   Got to love computer catch up and I’m not even getting into what they do to the O line yet.

Real World and PS2 World

Bye Week,   Oregon beats USC (so thats a match)

Alright.  Enough of the season has passed that we have decided to give our top 25’s.  I’ll post up Senor Burns version first and then I will put mine up with a sentence reasoning for each one.

My list is fluid week to week and I do not weigh a perfect record (I want you great at the end of the year) as heavy as I do eyeball test (how fast and strong you are) and what Vegas would say, does anyone really think Vegas would favor Iowa or Boise over USC?

Top 25 according to Travis

1. Alabama (8-0)
2. Texas (7-0)
3. Florida (7-0)
4. Iowa (8-0)
5. Boise St. (7-0)
6. Cincinnati (7-0)
7. TCU (7-0)
8. USC (6-1)
9. Oregon (6-1)
10. Georgia Tech (7-1)
11. LSU (6-1)
12. Virginia Tech (5-2)
13. Penn St. (7-1)
14. Pittsburgh (7-1)
15. Utah (6-1)
16. Houston (6-1)
17. Oklahoma St. (6-1)
18. West Virginia (6-1)
19. Miami (5-2)
20. Arizona (5-2)
21. South Carolina (6-2)
22. Ohio St. (6-2)
23. Central Michigan (7-1)
24. Notre Dame (5-2)
25. Mississippi (5-2)

Chip’s list:

1. Alabama (Look better than Florida at the moment)

2. Texas (Have started playing better as of late and look better than Florida)

3. Florida (Here by default, Tebow misses Harvin)

4. USC (Their one loss was on the road to former coaches without Barkley, Mays and their #2 receiver, Vegas would favor SC against Florda on a neutral field)

5. Iowa (I’m giving them credit for their record, but Vegas would have them as dogs to some teams below them on a neutral field)

6. Boise State (Well coached, weak conference and beat an Oregon school who had not hit their offensive stride)

7. TCU (Impressed me by waxing BYU)

8.  Cincinnati ( Here due to record and Good win over Oregon State)

9. Oregon (Can jump higher with a good showing against USC, might be playing best ball in country at moment)

10. Georgia Tech (triple option win over VT)

11. Virginia Tech (Close game loss against GT)

12.  LSU (Solid team)

13. Penn St (The favorite team for anyone with an AARP card)

14. Oklahoma State (I doubt they would let Houston pull that off again)

15. Utah (could switch with Pitt)

16. Pitt (See above)

17. Houston (respect for win over OSU but I think it was a fluke, YOU LOST TO UTEP, we will see how OSU fairs against Texas)

18. Miami (Harris will only get better)

19. Arizona (Had Foles started all year I don’t think Iowa wins that game and the offense runs better against UW…………but he didn’t)

20. South Carolina (Lost to Georgia)

21. West Virginia (Could be 20)

22. Ohio State (Pryor always makes them dangerous, now if he was just set free like Mike Vick. P.S. Please beat Iowa and save us from another Big 10 pasting in a title game)

23. Notre Dame (Close losses)

24. Kansas (Their QB is too good to leave them off)

25. Mississippi (Two losses to teams that are just better than them)

Ok time for the start of the much anticipated (by maybe 2 of our 3 readers) follow up to my previous article on unrealistic fan bases due to pervasive video game culture.  Sorry it has taken so long to start posting it up.  I’ve just been really lazy busy working.

So here is my first season with my favorite team, The Arizona Wildcats, and witness evidence my argument why fan bases are delusional.  All games were played in Heisman (usually under the influence of alcohol) because come on if you are playing in Varsity or All American you better step your game up.  The first few games will not be as detailed because I did not decide to do this until I had played 3 games.

Lets start with non conference schedules.

Bye Bye Central Michigan, Northern Arizona and Iowa.  Hello Oklahoma, Florida and Penn State.  My reasoning behind this was simple.  For one it is no fun to kick the computers ass 157 to 0 or whatever it would have been had I played those teams and secondly it helps the SOS and gives me a better shot at making the title game.  This is because just like in real life if you start the season not ranked no matter how good you do it is hard to move up to a top spot if other powers remain undefeated.  So I took on a top team from the Big 12, SEC and Big 10 hoping to give each of their potential conference champs a loss.

Week 1

Real Life

Central Michigan 6   AT     Arizona  19

Arizona starts with a season with a fairly vanilla playbook and beats Central Michigan shutting down their Heisman hopeful QB.  Grigsby goes for over 100 yards on the ground and Scott rushes for another 83. Scott also throws for 202 yards with 0 TD’s and a pick.

PS2 World

#2 (i think) Oklahoma 28    AT     Arizona  38

Bradford was benched midway through the first half after his 4th pick.  Problem was I matched Oklahoma for the most part INT for INT.  I left Matt Scott in the whole game and he ended with 8 interceptions to Oklahoma’s 9.  This was game one and it was learning the minutia of this years version.

What I learned, linebackers in this years version jump higher than the guys in And 1 mix tape videos to intercept passes in zone coverage.  There appears to be almost no way to drop the ball in over a zone when  a receiver settles in one.  Also the computer DB’s all have Deion Sanders recovering speed and will super hit your receiver that has beaten them so that the ball pops up in the air always to be intercepted by the other defender who magically caught up.  The computer enacts this whenever it wants (which in game one was often).

Player of Game on my side was Devon Ross who had 4 INT’s and a TD

Week 2

Real Life

NAU 17  AT    Arizona 34

NAU comes to Tucson to receive its paycheck beating.  Arizona runs a very vanilla playbook and wins by 17.  Grigsby runs for over 200 yards and Travis and I sit in stands wondering about if we can pass the ball.

PS2 World

#1 Florida 36  AT   Arizona 62

Tebow is benched during first half after his 4th interception.  I keep my interceptions down now that I’ve learned that all linebackers have 70 inch vertical leaps in zones.  Florida only keeps it so close because every so often the computer decides to break 6 tackles and go for a 65 yard TD run.

Player of the Game is Matt Scott with a stat line of 29-41  603 yards passing and 6 TD’s

Week 3

Real World

Arizona 17     AT       Iowa     27

Arizona’s offensive ineptitude finally costs them.  Matt Scott is benched in favor for Nick Foles in the 4th quarter and Foles leads them for their only offensive touchdown of the game.

PS2 World

Arizona  49     AT       # 4 (I think) Penn State     24

The computer pulls the classic “make you fumble any time you get close to scoring routine” so the game stayed closer than it should have.

Player of the Game Delashaun Dean    3 receptions for 232 yards and 3 TD’s.

(I’ll continue with the rest later)

When The British group The Buggles released “Video Killed The Radio Star”  who knew that years later the same could be said of the creation of sports video games and the end of realistic fan bases?  In 1991 Nintendo released Tecmo Super Bowl (TSB) and it has been a quick decent ever since.  I remember playing the first Tecmo Super Bowl.  I used to play it at my friend/neighbor TJ’s house.  I used to switch between taking the Raiders and tearing it up with Bo Jackson (The Mike Vick Madden video game character before Madden and Mike Vick) or taking the Eagles and playing with Randall Cunningham.  TJ used to pick the Browns and loved Webster Slaughter.

You used to be able to drop back all the way to the endzone and throw the ball 100 yards into the other endzone, and if you had Bo Jackson or Christian Okoye you could truck almost anyone.  The graphics at the time we thought were insane.  As the years passed along came Madden (you could create yourself as a player) and the games became more and more complex (more than 6 defensive plays) and looked more and more real.  The NCAA football series also started.  Allowing people to play as their favorite college programs.  I believe that this extra connection of making feel like the coach of their favorite team has led to fan bases with astronomically high expectations.

Now I am only 25 years old so maybe I just did not realize how delusional fan bases (fan comes from the word fanatic by the way) were during this time period.  I doubt it however as even over the past 10 years I have seen fan bases show less and less patience with new coaches and have insanely unrealistic expectations of players.

I bring this up because I am currently living in Southern California and the LA media and many others are going nuts over USC dropping a game to UW.  College football fan bases these days of large programs seem to believe that their teams should win EVERY SINGLE GAME and not just when they have a senior heavy class but EVERY SINGLE YEAR.  Some of them honestly believe that their team should win National Titles 8 out of 10 years.    USC going undefeated this year was not realistic.  They had to start an unproven QB, they went with true frosh Barkley over 8 passes in his career Corp.  USC also lost their number 2 receiver for the season with a collarbone break and after going on the road and beating OSU they lost their starting QB (Barkley) and their All World safety Taylor Mays.  To top it off Carroll had to replace coordinators as they became head coaches elsewhere (the price of any successful program).

From how many talk about it (especially fans) you would think that the Trojan loss caused the world to fall off it’s axis.  It is an in conference loss on the road to a former assistant of yours who had a superior QB to you.  You lost the turnover battle and still only lost by 3.  In fact if I remember correctly in the past 7 years Carroll has not lost a game by more than 7 points.  That is a phenomenal statistic as it means that in every loss you were in the game.  Oh yeah, by the way all of Carroll’s losses come against conferences opponents with the exception of their loss to Texas in the BCS game.  And in each game his team lost the turnover battle.  If I remember correctly Carroll isn’t the one fumbling.

So why all the sky is falling talk?  Because the media fans the flames of whatever the rabid over emotional fan bases want.  And what these fans want is undefeated seasons constantly.  And why wouldn’t they?, they lead their favorite teams to 10 straight undefeated seasons and 10 straight national titles or Super Bowl titles.  In fact in college football they can replace 7 starters on offense and 5 on defense and start a true freshman and still go undefeated.  I am a University of Arizona season ticket holder.  During my stay at UA we were at one time the worst Division 1 team in the nation.  We then hired Mike Stoops and by the way I heard many students talk you thought we would be winning National Titles in year 2 or 3.   When that didn’t happen Stoops was on the hot seat.  In fact I heard people talking about their video game seasons and why couldn’t Stoops do that.  I also heard them complain at every incomplete pass because in “their season” apparently Willie Tuitama went 48 for 50 every game with 10 touchdowns.   Luckily for Stoops he made a Bowl in year 5 which should be the benchmark for how you are as a coach as you have now graduated one class.  Although I have a feeling now that he replaced his 3 plus year starting QB that the fans will grow incredibly impatient if they are forced to sit through a 6-6 or 7-5 season.

In sports teams have windows.  Your goal as a coach is to win titles be they conference or national in those windows.  Then you have down years.  That is the rule of sport.  The team on the top today falls tomorrow.  This is true in the NFL and in College.  When you are successful you are everyone’s circled game on the calender and you lose players/coaches to the draft/other teams and retirement.

I will be providing a side by side of the real UA football season with a video game season I will be playing to show how far from realism these games can be.  So keep checking back to see how I do compared to the real Arizona Wildcats  In closing I ask that people give their teams and coaches a break.  No competitor wants to lose and your pressure on administration/owner just leads to additional stress put on the coaches/players.   And finally these guys are people.  Please treat them as such.  Don’t destroy their property if they make a mistake and cost a team a game (HELLO BILLS FANS!!!!!!!),  they didn’t want to lose that game either.

So I’m typing this as I watch the Nadal vs. Monfils quarter final in the US Open.  Good close to a great sports weekend.

I love college football, the start of it is always one of my favorite times of the year.  Multiple fan bases have high hopes (most highly unrealistic) but at least it keeps everyone talking.

My thoughts from this weeks college football opening weekend:

The Big East is boring and I will refuse to talk about them until they become relavent.

The ACC should be embarrassed.  Seriously you lost twice at home to FCS teams?  Your automatic BCS bid should be given to the Mountain West and then you and the Big East can have a pillow fight over who gets the last bid.

Big 10: You guys still look slow.   Navy………seriously…….is this 1926 or something?  My cell phone says no which means if you want to be taken seriously as a conference your top teams should kill Navy.  If said top team lays an egg (hey it happens every once and awhile) then your other teams need to pick up the slack and at least embarrass any school with a direction in front of their name (cough cough Iowa).

Pac 10:  Respectable.  Washington played LSU tough so the Sarkisian era looks like it could be promising.  More will be known next week after USC travels to OSU.  The Buckeye faithful better hope OSU was just overlooking the Midshipmen or they will be in for a very long day against USC.  Oregon losing to BSU is not a disgrace especially since the game was played on the smurf turf.  Blount’s punch however was a disgrace and I do not want to hear anyone say that the Boise player instigated it by talking smack.  Blount talked smack in print before the game and I’m sure both players talked smack the entire game to each other.  Blount couldnt take it that Boise definitely had the last word and socked a guy as he was getting yelled at by his coach for not being classy.  Then to make matters worse he flexes while running away, he must have just finished reading Chapter 1 of  “How to fight like a thug” by Carmelo Anthony.  Followed by punching his own player and then the really foolish move of taking his helmet off before he attempts to go all Ron Ron on the Boise State faithful.

SEC:  Yawn, good job beating up on who you should and kudos to Georgia for playing outside of the south against a national power in a non conference game.  Glad those on the message boards now claim Georgia is not a REAL SEC team.  Surprise surprise.

What I’ll watch these next few days:

US Open Tennis- Possible Nadal vs Federer rematch and Ouidin are the two  stories I care about.

NFL football – Season kicks off Thursday as does the fantasy football season, the BendErOverLikeBigBen’s are looking to get me a repeat as league champ!

BCS Games
Date	Game	Location	TV	Time	Matchup
Jan. 7	BCS Title	Pasadena, Calif.	ABC	8 p.m.	Florida vs. Oklahoma
Jan. 5	Orange	Miami	FOX	8 p.m.	Virginia Tech vs. Rutgers
Jan. 4	Fiesta	Glendale, Ariz.	FOX	8 p.m.	Texas vs. California
Jan. 1	Sugar	New Orleans, La.	FOX	8:30 p.m.	Mississippi vs. Boise St.
Jan. 1	Rose	Pasadena, Calif.	ABC	5 p.m.	USC vs. Penn St.
Non-BCS Games
Date	Game	Location	TV	Time	Matchup
Jan. 6	GMAC	Mobile, Ala.	ESPN	7 p.m.	Buffalo vs. Maryland
Jan. 2	Alamo	San Antonio	ESPN	9 p.m.	Michigan St. vs. Texas Tech
Jan. 2	Liberty	Memphis, Tenn.	ESPN	5:30 p.m.	Houston vs. Arkansas
Jan. 2	Cotton	Dallas	FOX	2 p.m.	Oklahoma St. vs. LSU
Jan. 2	Papajohns.com	Birmingham, Ala.	ESPN	2 p.m.	Cincinnati vs. Auburn
Jan. 2	International	Toronto	ESPN2	Noon	West Virginia vs. Western Michigan
Jan. 1	Gator	Jacksonville, Fla.	CBS	1 p.m.	Georgia Tech vs. Notre Dame
Jan. 1	Capital One	Orlando, Fla.	ABC	1 p.m.	Ohio St. vs. Alabama
Jan. 1	Outback	Tampa, Fla.	ESPN	11 a.m.	Iowa vs. Georgia
Dec. 31	Chick-fil-A	Atlanta	ESPN	7:30 p.m.	South Carolina vs. Florida St.
Dec. 31	Insight	Tempe, Ariz.	NFL Net.	5:30 p.m.	Wisconsin vs. Missouri
Dec. 31	Sun	El Paso, Tex.	CBS	Noon	Arizona vs. Kansas
Dec. 31	Armed Forces	Fort Worth, Tex.	ESPN	TBA	Utah vs. East Carolina
Dec. 30	Holiday	San Diego, Calif.	ESPN	8 p.m.	Oregon St. vs. Nebraska
Dec. 30	Texas	Houston	NFL Net.	8 p.m.	Baylor vs. Navy
Dec. 30	Humanitarian	Boise, Idaho	ESPN	4:30 p.m.	Nevada vs. Air Force
Dec. 29	Champs Sports	Orlando, Fla.	ESPN	8 p.m.	North Carolina vs. Illinois
Dec. 29	EagleBank	Washington D.C.	ESPN	4:30 p.m.	Memphis vs. Miami
Dec. 28	Independence	Shreveport, La.	ESPN	5 p.m.	Colorado vs. Kentucky
Dec. 27	Music City	Nashville, Tenn.	ESPN	8:15 p.m.	Tennessee vs. NC State
Dec. 26	Emerald	San Francisco	ESPN	8:30 p.m.	Clemson vs. Stanford
Dec. 26	Meineke Car Care	Charlotte, N.C.	ESPN	4 p.m.	Wake Forest vs. Pittsburgh
Dec. 26	Motor City	Detroit, Mich.	ESPN	5 p.m.	Central Michigan vs. Michigan
Dec. 24	Hawaii	Honolulu	ESPN	8 p.m.	Fresno St. vs. Tulsa
Dec. 23	Poinsettia	San Diego, Calif.	ESPN	8 p.m.	TCU vs. UCLA
Dec. 22	Las Vegas	Las Vegas, Nev.	ESPN	8 p.m.	Oregon vs. BYU
Dec. 20	New Orleans	New Orleans	ESPN	8 p.m.	Troy vs. Southern Miss
Dec. 19	St. Petersburg	St. Petersburg, Fla.	ESPN	8 p.m.	South Florida vs. UTEP
Dec. 19	New Mexico	Albuquerque, N.M.	ESPN	4:30 p.m.	UNLV vs. Louisiana Tech

Yes, we know there are 120 FBS schools, but realistically you can cut that down to 66 since only a BCS conference and Notre Dame will play for a title.  Let’s go ahead and eliminate the Big East and Notre Dame since neither will run the table, which is what it will take for either to make it.  The leaves five BCS conferences.  It would be easy to say take the top 2 from each league but do you see two ACC teams making a BCS bowl?  Didn’t think so; let’s take a look at the 10:

 

1. Florida

Skinny: Usually when you win a title and bring back your Heisman Trophy quarterback and all 11 starters on defense, experts think highly of you.  This team is just loaded and possess anywhere from 20-30 NFL players.

Why They Will: This is clearly the best team in the country.  Even if this team loses a game it will get the benefit of the doubt more than other and won’t fall far in the polls (think Florida State, Charlie Ward and 1993).  Also it’s a rebuilding year in the SEC East, so they’re guaranteed nine wins.  Plus no Ole Miss or Alabama.

Why They Won’t: They lose a game and two teams go undefeated?  Tim Tebow decides to have sex, likes it, no longer has any aggression on the field and they lose four games?  I don’t see how this team does not end up in Pasadena.

Odds: 1-2

 

2. Texas

Skinny: Ok, enough with the BCS tie breaker.  I’ve had to hear UT fan whine about this non-stop (especially in my household) all offseason.  Let’s state some facts: 1. You lost at Texas Tech, 2. Your non-conference schedule did not match OU’s, 3. If you think the BCS is unjust, then give up your 2005 Rose Bowl trophy and send it to Berkeley.

Why They Will: This is probably Mack Brown’s best defense.  It might be Colt McCoy’s turn to win the Heisman.  The schedule is very favorable and they’ve gotten over the Oklahoma block by winning 3 of the last 4 meetings.

Why the Won’t: Does anyone see a scenario similar to last year?  Beat OU then lose at Oklahoma St., then watch OU beat OSU in Norman in the final game of the year.  Very possible, in fact, highly probable.  Then Texas will have to sweat out their stellar non-conference win at Wyoming up against OU’s win over BYU and OSU’s win over Georgia… Good Luck.

Odds: 2.5-1

 

3. Oklahoma

Skinny: Sam Bradford came back and most of the skilled positions are intact.  There is some rebuilding on both lines, but that doesn’t matter at OU with one 5-star replacing another.

Why They Will: They were expected to beat Texas, blew a lead, and snuck in the back door to the title game.  This time they get some revenge against the Horns.  An opportunity for a rematch against Florida outside of the state Florida is a good motivator.

Why They Won’t: They don’t beat Texas and with a road schedule that includes visits to Nebraska and Kansas, an additional upset looms.

Odds: 3-1

 

4. USC

Skinny: USC must replace its starting quarterback and eight starters on defense.  There hasn’t been this much uncertainty under Pete Carroll since 2004.  That year USC had some guy named Matt Leinart replace Carson Palmer and proceeded to win the National Title.  Oh joy.

Why They Will: USC continues to reload with the most NFL talent laden roster in college football.  Aaron Corp or true freshmen Matt Barkley will replace Mark Sanchez and the team won’t miss a beat.  A heavy road schedule will boost them in the computers.

Why They Won’t: An early test at Ohio St. is too tough for the new QB.  Additional road games at Oregon and California early in the season could result in potential losses.  A conference loss continues to kill USC in the computers as the Pac 10 round robin schedule does them in again.

Odds: 5-1

 

5. Virginia Tech

Skinny: Plain and simple, the season opener in Atlanta against Alabama is an elimination game for both teams.  The ACC does not have the credibility and a one-loss team will not be ranked ahead of a one-loss SEC or Big 12 team in the computers.

Why They Will: This is finally Tyrod Taylor’s team.  He’s the leader, the man, the quarterback.  After beating Alabama, a non-conference home game against Nebraska could give VT the SOS boost.  The ACC schedule is very manageable with a back-to-back stretch at Georgia Tech and home versus North Carolina to decide the coastal division.

Why They Won’t: They lose to Alabama.  They can run the table after that and finish 12-1, but could you honestly see VT being ranked ahead of the previous four teams mentioned with one-loss?

Odds: 8-1

 

6. California

Skinny: On paper, I don’t think Cal is the sixth best team in the country.  However, these rankings are unknown until about Week 6.  That said I give them the sixth best odds.

Why They Will: Watch some Jahvid Best highlights and decide for yourself.  The biggest game-changer in college football.  He’s always one-step away from an 80-yard run.  The QB issues should be over as Kevin Riley is finally the guy.  The non-conference schedule is manageable and USC comes to Berkeley as well as Oregon State and thorn-in-the side Arizona.  Winning at Oregon to start Pac 10 play could be a booster.

Why They Won’t: Ever since losing at USC in 2005 in a game they outplayed the Trojans and subsequently being snubbed from the Rose Bowl, Cal hasn’t taken the next step as challenger to the Trojans.  There have been upsets (at Arizona in 06) and meltdowns (all of 07) and the inability to beat USC.  If this has been the pattern why would it change?  Plus a road game to start Pac 10 play in Eugene could be a deflator.

Odds: 10-1

 

7. Penn State

Skinny: After Ohio State’s two poor showings in the previous title games, the polls made it perfectly clear to the Big 10 last year: Go Undefeated or Go Home.  Penn St. fell victim to that.  After losing at Iowa by 1 on a game-ending FG, Penn St. fell to 8^th in the BCS standings and didn’t get a sniff of a title shot.  They didn’t lose at home (Florida) or on a neutral field (Oklahoma) but were nowhere to be found in the discussion.  After being pasted by USC in the Rose Bowl, the polls got it right and the Big 10 kept its slower reputation intact.

Why They Will: Darryl Clark is the best player in the Big 10.  Any elite team with a senior quarterback has a shot.  In addition, the schedule should be banned.  8 home games, 4 road games.  Yes, 4.  Ohio State and Iowa travel to Happy Valley.

Why They Won’t: Despite Clark being back, unfortunately for him, he loses his top 3 receivers.  If Penn State slips it’s done.  Don’t be surprised if that final game of the year at Michigan State derails a potential undefeated season.

Odds: 12-1

 

8. Ohio State

Skinny: Terrell Pryor might become the most electric player in college football as the season progresses. Similar to Virginia Tech, when USC visits the Horseshoe in Week 2 it’s an elimination game for the Buckeyes.  Go undefeated or go home.

Why They Will: After being embarrassed by USC last year, this time OSU gets them at home and it’s USC with the quarterback issues.  Survive and advance.  Then it’s cruise control until a visit to the White Out for the Big 10 title against Penn St.

Why They Won’t: The Trojans crush their spirits and manhood once again and all that’s left to play for is another opportunity to get their spirits and manhood crushed again by SC in the Rose Bowl.  Seems to be a theme.

Odds: 15-1

 

9. Oklahoma State

Skinny: If you got on the Texas Tech bandwagon last year, this is your team this year.  They’re strikingly similar.  They have a numbers crushing dual-threat QB (Zack Robinson), the best WR in college football (Dez Bryant) and a 1500-yard back (Kendall Hunter).  This is a team that can score 40-50 a game.  Remember this team finished the regular season only with losses to the big three in the South.

Why They Will: They get a rebuilding Georgia team at home to start the season.  They avoid Kansas and Nebraska with the north schedule.  They should be 7-0 when the Horns come for a visit on Halloween which will be a prime-time affair on ABC.  Sound familiar?  They could be 11-0 when they head to Norman for the final game of the year.  Again, sound familiar?

Why They Won’t: As we learned with Tech last year, undefeated is probably the only way to eclipse the two big ones in the south.  Fair or not, it’s the world we live in.  The one thing that could catapult them above the two is if Georgia is a 9-10 win team.  Then that SOS looks that much better.

Odds: 20-1

 

10. SEC West Winner

Skinny: For you SEC honks, I’m not a hater.  I’m well aware that you have five teams ranked in the preseason top 13.  Just remember these are odds to win it all.  Can any of these teams get past each other?  Then can they get past Florida?  Ole Miss, LSU, and Alabama are the candidates.

Why They Will: Ole Miss beat Florida in the Swamp last year.  They possess the best QB prospect in Jevan Snead and they avoid Florida in the regular season and get Alabama and LSU at home.  LSU gets Florida at home and the winner of that game the last three years has gone on to win it all.  But can they beat them twice?  In addition, they have to go to Oxford and Tuscaloosa.  Alabama has the elimination game against Virginia Tech but there’s no Florida on the schedule, plus LSU at home.  Get out of that gauntlet with one-loss and the rolls could be reversed for the SEC Championship game against an undefeated Florida.

Why They Won’t: Again, who is going to beat Florida?  Also, with the “depth” of the conference can any of these teams avoid an upset?

Odds: 35-1