burningchips.com

Wow.  I am still in shock from what I witnessed Saturday night.  No not the way that the Arizona Wildcats decided to rip my heart out this time; not getting to fumbles, stupid penalties, field goal hitting cross bar that still somehow goes in.  No I am talking about the way that the entire nation got to witness that we are unable to win with but also lose with class.

To the members of our student section who decided to rush the field.  You guys are idiots.  Honestly you have once again proved what I have long said, you are one of the dumbest student sections in all of America.  Rushing the field once had meaning.  I sat through the Mackovic era.  We were the worst team in Division I football at times while I was at UA (2002-2006).   We rushed the field for wins that truly seemed like they would never occur.  Our first Pac 10 home win over Washington rings a bell.

Today the students seem to just rush the field because they think you have to do it.  That by not doing it means that they are missing out on some part of the college experience.  Question for our students, “When was the last time you saw the Texas, Florida, or USC student sections rushing the field?”.   That’s right you have never seen that.  Why?  Because those programs expect to win and their students show some common sense.  Beating a program ranked higher than you is not cause to rush the field.  In fact had Arizona won that game it would have been the top team in the Pac 10.

Getting past the fact that Arizona as a program should no longer rush the field with the possible exception of finally securing its first Rose Bowl birth.  The fans could not even wait until the intelligent time to do it (after the game by the way just so you idiots know next time).  The student section decided that the smart thing to do was pour over the fence with a minute in the game left with Oregon driving and only down a touchdown.  What a way to motivate the opposing team.

After the game the situation got worse.  Oregon players rushed the field taunting the UA student section (Not classy either, but you guys deserved it).  Instead of eating crow and realizing how stupid they looked our students decided to hurl bottles onto the field.  The bottle throwing was not confined to the students alone.  Those in the south endzone also took part in this act of cowardice.  I’m sure you guys felt like real bad asses anonymously hurling dangerous objects onto the field.  One of them even hit and knocked a cheerleader out.  I hope the person responsible for that gets turned in and prosecuted to the fullest extent.

This situation actually makes me hope ticket prices are raised.  Hopefully pricing out some of the low life Tucson locales that buy tickets in the south end and think that it gives them the right to act like animals.  Fan behavior has spiraled lower at a pace so fast that it makes one realize how true the movie Idiocracy is.   Hopefully this is a wake up call and I  hope the NCAA comes down hard on our fans.  I would even support a UEFA like punishment of being forced to play a home game next year without any fans in attendance.  This will probably not happen due to monetary reasons but it would be refreshing to see.

In closing I apologize to the University of Oregon, its players, fans, cheerleaders, trainers and anyone else associated with their program that was there that night on behalf of all rational Arizona Wildcat fans.  I am truly ashamed of some of those who call themselves fans of our program.

Top 25 for Travis

1. Alabama (9-0), clinched SEC West with win over LSU
2. Texas (9-0), Iowa’s loss means they won’t be passed by any other unbeaten
3. Florida (9-0), Gouge This
4. TCU (9-0), a near 3 TD favorite over Utah
5. Cincinnati (9-0), last game at Pittsburgh may boost them
6. Boise St. (9-0), pretty much locked to this spot
7. Georgia Tech (9-1), squeeked out an OT win
8. Pittsburgh (8-1), nothing fancy just victories
9. LSU (7-2), lose and move up
10. Oregon (7-2), trap game
11. USC (7-2), could still make the Rose Bowl
12. Iowa (9-1), going from National Title to Capital One Bowl in 2 weeks
13. Utah (8-1), outside shot at a BCS at-large with win at TCU
14. Houston (8-1), barely hanging on
15. Miami (7-2), big 2nd half
16. Arizona (6-2), did what they were supposed to against Washington St.
17. Ohio St. (8-2), showdown for the Rose Bowl
18. Oklahoma St. (7-2), nice blowout win
19. Penn St. (8-2), two home blowout losses to the good teams in the Big 10
20. Virginia Tech (6-3), nice rebound against East Carolina
21. South Florida (6-2), earned a bye
22. West Virginia (7-2), big one at Cincinnati
23. Oregon St. (6-3), normal 2nd half surge
24. Stanford (6-3), Toby Gerhard is a Heisman candidate
25. Clemson (6-3), C.J. Spiller is becoming an All-American
I can not really complain with Travis’ top 25 list.  I’d flip Boise and Cinci and drop Houston behind Miami and U of A.

Real World

Arizona played Stanford and came from behind to win 43-38 on a long run by Nic Grigsby on third and forever.  Nick Foles tore it up passing going 40 for 51 with 415 yards and 3 TD’s in an old fashioned Pac 10 shootout.

PS2 World

My beloved Cats had a much easier time with Stanford in PS2′ville.  Nick Foles actually makes his first extended appearance for me in this game as I got fed up with interceptions with Scott.  Had to see if I could change something.  Here are the stats for the game.

#22 UA    45                                vs                                Stanford   14

Total Offence                       405                                                298

Rush Yards                             57                                                   -3

Pass Yards                            348                                                301

Turnovers                                 6                                                       6

Matt Scott       12 for 24   243 yards   1 TD   3 picks                                                                                                                                          Nick Foles    11 for 15   105 yards   2 td 0 picks                                                                                                                                                 Grigsby       13 att 47 yards 1 td                                                                                                                                                                              Gronkowski    10 rec 237 yards 3 TD                                                                                                                                                             Ross 3 INT

The Following week Arizona played UCLA.

Real World

The Wildcats had 5 turnovers and still somehow managed to find a way to win the game.  This would have never happened when I attended U of A.  In a game like this they would have been blitzed.  Luckily Stoops has built a program with depth………………………well UCLA also kinda sucks.

PS2 World

(Here are my notes I took while drunk and playing)

UCLA 26 at Arizona 45

Real horseshit game as far as interceptions are concerned  tipped off receivers hands and insane jumps

Player of game

Gronk had over 240 receiving with 1 td  and fumble return for TD

Major computer catch up game

Finally started Foles and he had an awful game with 2 TD’s and 5 picks  will stick with him at QB as before the game he had better TD to INT ratio than Scott.  2 TD’s to 0 int.  Also higher completion percentage.  UCLA game was just ridiculous for picks.

Now 21^st in Coaches and 14^th in Media Poll,  15^th in BCS,  still no love.   Teams I have beat however are 3^rd/4^th and 6^th/9^th.   I have Number 1 SOS and I still can’t crack top 10.  WTF?

I will do a write up on the game play of 2010.  But here is a quick breakdown.  The game is much more fun when playing a friend.  When playing the computer the computer to try to even things out has its defense make insane interceptions (Everyone has Deion Sanders recovery speed with Jerry Rice hands and Michael Jordan hops, even linebackers!).   It is impossible to hit the seams in cover 2 as somehow the first corner jumps up 70 inches on a pass that does not go at a correct angle from where you are in the pocket so somehow it ends up over the first  corners head.  Sneak peak to the future for an example. At one point with Foles in a game I was 25 for 28 with like 3oo some yards 2 TD’s and 3 picks.  That’s right.  Every pass I threw was caught.  Of the 3 interceptions 2 occured when I went deep when I caught them in a blitz only once to have the Corner somehow out run, after he was beat by 3 to 4 yards, Terrell Turner to the ball and pick it off.  And once a Safety catch and pass Gronkowski and out jump him for it when he started 5 yards behind.  The third was on a screen pass where they had the ball hit off a blockers back into the arms of a charging corner for a pick 6 (third straight pick by the way) for their only Touchdown of the game.   Got to love computer catch up and I’m not even getting into what they do to the O line yet.

Real World and PS2 World

Bye Week,   Oregon beats USC (so thats a match)

Alright.  Enough of the season has passed that we have decided to give our top 25’s.  I’ll post up Senor Burns version first and then I will put mine up with a sentence reasoning for each one.

My list is fluid week to week and I do not weigh a perfect record (I want you great at the end of the year) as heavy as I do eyeball test (how fast and strong you are) and what Vegas would say, does anyone really think Vegas would favor Iowa or Boise over USC?

Top 25 according to Travis

1. Alabama (8-0)
2. Texas (7-0)
3. Florida (7-0)
4. Iowa (8-0)
5. Boise St. (7-0)
6. Cincinnati (7-0)
7. TCU (7-0)
8. USC (6-1)
9. Oregon (6-1)
10. Georgia Tech (7-1)
11. LSU (6-1)
12. Virginia Tech (5-2)
13. Penn St. (7-1)
14. Pittsburgh (7-1)
15. Utah (6-1)
16. Houston (6-1)
17. Oklahoma St. (6-1)
18. West Virginia (6-1)
19. Miami (5-2)
20. Arizona (5-2)
21. South Carolina (6-2)
22. Ohio St. (6-2)
23. Central Michigan (7-1)
24. Notre Dame (5-2)
25. Mississippi (5-2)

Chip’s list:

1. Alabama (Look better than Florida at the moment)

2. Texas (Have started playing better as of late and look better than Florida)

3. Florida (Here by default, Tebow misses Harvin)

4. USC (Their one loss was on the road to former coaches without Barkley, Mays and their #2 receiver, Vegas would favor SC against Florda on a neutral field)

5. Iowa (I’m giving them credit for their record, but Vegas would have them as dogs to some teams below them on a neutral field)

6. Boise State (Well coached, weak conference and beat an Oregon school who had not hit their offensive stride)

7. TCU (Impressed me by waxing BYU)

8.  Cincinnati ( Here due to record and Good win over Oregon State)

9. Oregon (Can jump higher with a good showing against USC, might be playing best ball in country at moment)

10. Georgia Tech (triple option win over VT)

11. Virginia Tech (Close game loss against GT)

12.  LSU (Solid team)

13. Penn St (The favorite team for anyone with an AARP card)

14. Oklahoma State (I doubt they would let Houston pull that off again)

15. Utah (could switch with Pitt)

16. Pitt (See above)

17. Houston (respect for win over OSU but I think it was a fluke, YOU LOST TO UTEP, we will see how OSU fairs against Texas)

18. Miami (Harris will only get better)

19. Arizona (Had Foles started all year I don’t think Iowa wins that game and the offense runs better against UW…………but he didn’t)

20. South Carolina (Lost to Georgia)

21. West Virginia (Could be 20)

22. Ohio State (Pryor always makes them dangerous, now if he was just set free like Mike Vick. P.S. Please beat Iowa and save us from another Big 10 pasting in a title game)

23. Notre Dame (Close losses)

24. Kansas (Their QB is too good to leave them off)

25. Mississippi (Two losses to teams that are just better than them)

Ok time for the start of the much anticipated (by maybe 2 of our 3 readers) follow up to my previous article on unrealistic fan bases due to pervasive video game culture.  Sorry it has taken so long to start posting it up.  I’ve just been really lazy busy working.

So here is my first season with my favorite team, The Arizona Wildcats, and witness evidence my argument why fan bases are delusional.  All games were played in Heisman (usually under the influence of alcohol) because come on if you are playing in Varsity or All American you better step your game up.  The first few games will not be as detailed because I did not decide to do this until I had played 3 games.

Lets start with non conference schedules.

Bye Bye Central Michigan, Northern Arizona and Iowa.  Hello Oklahoma, Florida and Penn State.  My reasoning behind this was simple.  For one it is no fun to kick the computers ass 157 to 0 or whatever it would have been had I played those teams and secondly it helps the SOS and gives me a better shot at making the title game.  This is because just like in real life if you start the season not ranked no matter how good you do it is hard to move up to a top spot if other powers remain undefeated.  So I took on a top team from the Big 12, SEC and Big 10 hoping to give each of their potential conference champs a loss.

Week 1

Real Life

Central Michigan 6   AT     Arizona  19

Arizona starts with a season with a fairly vanilla playbook and beats Central Michigan shutting down their Heisman hopeful QB.  Grigsby goes for over 100 yards on the ground and Scott rushes for another 83. Scott also throws for 202 yards with 0 TD’s and a pick.

PS2 World

#2 (i think) Oklahoma 28    AT     Arizona  38

Bradford was benched midway through the first half after his 4th pick.  Problem was I matched Oklahoma for the most part INT for INT.  I left Matt Scott in the whole game and he ended with 8 interceptions to Oklahoma’s 9.  This was game one and it was learning the minutia of this years version.

What I learned, linebackers in this years version jump higher than the guys in And 1 mix tape videos to intercept passes in zone coverage.  There appears to be almost no way to drop the ball in over a zone when  a receiver settles in one.  Also the computer DB’s all have Deion Sanders recovering speed and will super hit your receiver that has beaten them so that the ball pops up in the air always to be intercepted by the other defender who magically caught up.  The computer enacts this whenever it wants (which in game one was often).

Player of Game on my side was Devon Ross who had 4 INT’s and a TD

Week 2

Real Life

NAU 17  AT    Arizona 34

NAU comes to Tucson to receive its paycheck beating.  Arizona runs a very vanilla playbook and wins by 17.  Grigsby runs for over 200 yards and Travis and I sit in stands wondering about if we can pass the ball.

PS2 World

#1 Florida 36  AT   Arizona 62

Tebow is benched during first half after his 4th interception.  I keep my interceptions down now that I’ve learned that all linebackers have 70 inch vertical leaps in zones.  Florida only keeps it so close because every so often the computer decides to break 6 tackles and go for a 65 yard TD run.

Player of the Game is Matt Scott with a stat line of 29-41  603 yards passing and 6 TD’s

Week 3

Real World

Arizona 17     AT       Iowa     27

Arizona’s offensive ineptitude finally costs them.  Matt Scott is benched in favor for Nick Foles in the 4th quarter and Foles leads them for their only offensive touchdown of the game.

PS2 World

Arizona  49     AT       # 4 (I think) Penn State     24

The computer pulls the classic “make you fumble any time you get close to scoring routine” so the game stayed closer than it should have.

Player of the Game Delashaun Dean    3 receptions for 232 yards and 3 TD’s.

(I’ll continue with the rest later)

“For the loser now, Will be later to win, Oh the times they are a-changin”  – Bob Dylan

Those lyrics sum up the UW vs UA game this past Saturday perfectly.  In my recent memory I can not remember a game dominated by one team so single handedly (UA outgained UW by 205 yards and held the ball twice as long) only for that team to lose.

I won’t talk about other games this week as I really did not see any others.  I have been in Seattle and only caught bits and pieces of the other match ups of this weekend at the bar I went to before the UA/UW game.

Instead I will focus on providing you my overall impression of the UA vs UW game.

Stadium-  Husky stadium is set in an absolutely gorgeous location.  Lake Washington, Rainier in the background on a clear day.  Hard to beat.  My seat was in the endzone with Huskies written on it.  The stadium definitely needs remodeling as fans are a good 30 yards away from the action due to the track.  The fan noise was lessened somewhat for the players by how far removed the fans were.  It did get quite chilly during the game and made me long for those nice October, November Tucson games where you still sport shorts and flip flops.

Game -  UA dominated for 57 plus minutes of the game.  They outgained the Huskies by 205 yards and held the ball for almost 40 minutes.  Normally that is a recipe for a blow out.  Tonight  offensive ineptitude in the red zone killed the Wildcats.  The Wildcats kicker had field goals of 18, 23, 24 and 29 yards.

Was the Arizona offensive line just abysmal on the goal line or did the Husky D just step up?  It was probably a combination of the two.  On one instance two straight QB sneak attempts from the 1 failed for the Cats.  On neither did the O line for Arizona get any push and on the second Foles did not get anywhere close to low enough with his shoulders to be effective. It should go without saying that Arizona misses the presence of 6′6″ 270 lbs all universe Rob Gronkowski in the red zone.

After the Huskies scored with 2:55 left (I think UA made a mistake of having the DE’s pin their ears back to attempt to sack locker instead of playing contain as he is very dangerous outside the pocket) the improbable happened, which is often the case for teams who fail to punch in touchdowns in the red zone.  A quick pass which was low and behind Delashaun Dean hit off his foot (debatable from some camera angles but I’ll let the mouth breathers yell about it) and bounced right into the arms of a Husky player who raced for the go ahead TD.  A two point conversion later and Arizona was down 3 with plenty of time to drive the field on the sieve which had all night been the Husky D (well at least until the red zone).  On 2nd and short Foles took a sack.  After an incomplete pass on third down an interception followed on forth and that was all she wrote.

Exciting game, heartbreaking for me (reminds me of 2003 against WSU at home) but kudos to UW for not giving up.

Players of the game:

Washington – Locker, the numbers were not spectacular only 140 passing but he also had 92 rushing yards.  Key stat however was he did throw for 3 TD’s and rushed for 1 more.  This guy IS the Washington offence and from what I have heard is the number 1 QB prospect according to many NFL scouts.  His passing still looks a bit iffy at times but he did have a few balls dropped by his receivers. Opening drive INT did not kill the team.  The guy is big time and should receive some Heisman attention but probably won’t receive much because most are sleeping when his games are on.
Arizona- Foles, another good game from the first year QB.  384 yards passing a passing TD and a rushing TD.  Of the two interceptions one was a fluke and the other was on a fourth and long for the game where he at least gave his receiver a chance to make a play on the ball (I’d rather have my QB get the occasional pick when his receiver lets him down than have a QB who is too chicken to throw it up for his guy to make play).  The kid throws seeds has a confidence in his arm and in his receivers which is great to see  and it is nice to have a quarterback that you can tell goes through his reads.  Overall a fairly mistake free game, only bad mistake was a drive killing delay of game. Did not get much help from his O-line on goal line situations when attempting to sneak (although should have gotten lower on one as I mentioned earlier) or hand the ball off.   I am still very pleased at Arizona’s QB play (Thanks Texas for messing up and overlooking this kid) and look forward to 2 more years of it.

*Additional note, I had the pleasure of meeting Nick Foles dad in a bar before the game.  Had a great time meeting and talking with you.  For the 3 readers we have, don’t worry I wont go soft on Foles if he starts throwing Interceptions by forcing the ball into triple coverage.  His play to this point however has been great and deserving of praise.

Chip

So I’m typing this as I watch the Nadal vs. Monfils quarter final in the US Open.  Good close to a great sports weekend.

I love college football, the start of it is always one of my favorite times of the year.  Multiple fan bases have high hopes (most highly unrealistic) but at least it keeps everyone talking.

My thoughts from this weeks college football opening weekend:

The Big East is boring and I will refuse to talk about them until they become relavent.

The ACC should be embarrassed.  Seriously you lost twice at home to FCS teams?  Your automatic BCS bid should be given to the Mountain West and then you and the Big East can have a pillow fight over who gets the last bid.

Big 10: You guys still look slow.   Navy………seriously…….is this 1926 or something?  My cell phone says no which means if you want to be taken seriously as a conference your top teams should kill Navy.  If said top team lays an egg (hey it happens every once and awhile) then your other teams need to pick up the slack and at least embarrass any school with a direction in front of their name (cough cough Iowa).

Pac 10:  Respectable.  Washington played LSU tough so the Sarkisian era looks like it could be promising.  More will be known next week after USC travels to OSU.  The Buckeye faithful better hope OSU was just overlooking the Midshipmen or they will be in for a very long day against USC.  Oregon losing to BSU is not a disgrace especially since the game was played on the smurf turf.  Blount’s punch however was a disgrace and I do not want to hear anyone say that the Boise player instigated it by talking smack.  Blount talked smack in print before the game and I’m sure both players talked smack the entire game to each other.  Blount couldnt take it that Boise definitely had the last word and socked a guy as he was getting yelled at by his coach for not being classy.  Then to make matters worse he flexes while running away, he must have just finished reading Chapter 1 of  “How to fight like a thug” by Carmelo Anthony.  Followed by punching his own player and then the really foolish move of taking his helmet off before he attempts to go all Ron Ron on the Boise State faithful.

SEC:  Yawn, good job beating up on who you should and kudos to Georgia for playing outside of the south against a national power in a non conference game.  Glad those on the message boards now claim Georgia is not a REAL SEC team.  Surprise surprise.

What I’ll watch these next few days:

US Open Tennis- Possible Nadal vs Federer rematch and Ouidin are the two  stories I care about.

NFL football – Season kicks off Thursday as does the fantasy football season, the BendErOverLikeBigBen’s are looking to get me a repeat as league champ!

BCS Games
Date	Game	Location	TV	Time	Matchup
Jan. 7	BCS Title	Pasadena, Calif.	ABC	8 p.m.	Florida vs. Oklahoma
Jan. 5	Orange	Miami	FOX	8 p.m.	Virginia Tech vs. Rutgers
Jan. 4	Fiesta	Glendale, Ariz.	FOX	8 p.m.	Texas vs. California
Jan. 1	Sugar	New Orleans, La.	FOX	8:30 p.m.	Mississippi vs. Boise St.
Jan. 1	Rose	Pasadena, Calif.	ABC	5 p.m.	USC vs. Penn St.
Non-BCS Games
Date	Game	Location	TV	Time	Matchup
Jan. 6	GMAC	Mobile, Ala.	ESPN	7 p.m.	Buffalo vs. Maryland
Jan. 2	Alamo	San Antonio	ESPN	9 p.m.	Michigan St. vs. Texas Tech
Jan. 2	Liberty	Memphis, Tenn.	ESPN	5:30 p.m.	Houston vs. Arkansas
Jan. 2	Cotton	Dallas	FOX	2 p.m.	Oklahoma St. vs. LSU
Jan. 2	Papajohns.com	Birmingham, Ala.	ESPN	2 p.m.	Cincinnati vs. Auburn
Jan. 2	International	Toronto	ESPN2	Noon	West Virginia vs. Western Michigan
Jan. 1	Gator	Jacksonville, Fla.	CBS	1 p.m.	Georgia Tech vs. Notre Dame
Jan. 1	Capital One	Orlando, Fla.	ABC	1 p.m.	Ohio St. vs. Alabama
Jan. 1	Outback	Tampa, Fla.	ESPN	11 a.m.	Iowa vs. Georgia
Dec. 31	Chick-fil-A	Atlanta	ESPN	7:30 p.m.	South Carolina vs. Florida St.
Dec. 31	Insight	Tempe, Ariz.	NFL Net.	5:30 p.m.	Wisconsin vs. Missouri
Dec. 31	Sun	El Paso, Tex.	CBS	Noon	Arizona vs. Kansas
Dec. 31	Armed Forces	Fort Worth, Tex.	ESPN	TBA	Utah vs. East Carolina
Dec. 30	Holiday	San Diego, Calif.	ESPN	8 p.m.	Oregon St. vs. Nebraska
Dec. 30	Texas	Houston	NFL Net.	8 p.m.	Baylor vs. Navy
Dec. 30	Humanitarian	Boise, Idaho	ESPN	4:30 p.m.	Nevada vs. Air Force
Dec. 29	Champs Sports	Orlando, Fla.	ESPN	8 p.m.	North Carolina vs. Illinois
Dec. 29	EagleBank	Washington D.C.	ESPN	4:30 p.m.	Memphis vs. Miami
Dec. 28	Independence	Shreveport, La.	ESPN	5 p.m.	Colorado vs. Kentucky
Dec. 27	Music City	Nashville, Tenn.	ESPN	8:15 p.m.	Tennessee vs. NC State
Dec. 26	Emerald	San Francisco	ESPN	8:30 p.m.	Clemson vs. Stanford
Dec. 26	Meineke Car Care	Charlotte, N.C.	ESPN	4 p.m.	Wake Forest vs. Pittsburgh
Dec. 26	Motor City	Detroit, Mich.	ESPN	5 p.m.	Central Michigan vs. Michigan
Dec. 24	Hawaii	Honolulu	ESPN	8 p.m.	Fresno St. vs. Tulsa
Dec. 23	Poinsettia	San Diego, Calif.	ESPN	8 p.m.	TCU vs. UCLA
Dec. 22	Las Vegas	Las Vegas, Nev.	ESPN	8 p.m.	Oregon vs. BYU
Dec. 20	New Orleans	New Orleans	ESPN	8 p.m.	Troy vs. Southern Miss
Dec. 19	St. Petersburg	St. Petersburg, Fla.	ESPN	8 p.m.	South Florida vs. UTEP
Dec. 19	New Mexico	Albuquerque, N.M.	ESPN	4:30 p.m.	UNLV vs. Louisiana Tech

Yes, we know there are 120 FBS schools, but realistically you can cut that down to 66 since only a BCS conference and Notre Dame will play for a title.  Let’s go ahead and eliminate the Big East and Notre Dame since neither will run the table, which is what it will take for either to make it.  The leaves five BCS conferences.  It would be easy to say take the top 2 from each league but do you see two ACC teams making a BCS bowl?  Didn’t think so; let’s take a look at the 10:

 

1. Florida

Skinny: Usually when you win a title and bring back your Heisman Trophy quarterback and all 11 starters on defense, experts think highly of you.  This team is just loaded and possess anywhere from 20-30 NFL players.

Why They Will: This is clearly the best team in the country.  Even if this team loses a game it will get the benefit of the doubt more than other and won’t fall far in the polls (think Florida State, Charlie Ward and 1993).  Also it’s a rebuilding year in the SEC East, so they’re guaranteed nine wins.  Plus no Ole Miss or Alabama.

Why They Won’t: They lose a game and two teams go undefeated?  Tim Tebow decides to have sex, likes it, no longer has any aggression on the field and they lose four games?  I don’t see how this team does not end up in Pasadena.

Odds: 1-2

 

2. Texas

Skinny: Ok, enough with the BCS tie breaker.  I’ve had to hear UT fan whine about this non-stop (especially in my household) all offseason.  Let’s state some facts: 1. You lost at Texas Tech, 2. Your non-conference schedule did not match OU’s, 3. If you think the BCS is unjust, then give up your 2005 Rose Bowl trophy and send it to Berkeley.

Why They Will: This is probably Mack Brown’s best defense.  It might be Colt McCoy’s turn to win the Heisman.  The schedule is very favorable and they’ve gotten over the Oklahoma block by winning 3 of the last 4 meetings.

Why the Won’t: Does anyone see a scenario similar to last year?  Beat OU then lose at Oklahoma St., then watch OU beat OSU in Norman in the final game of the year.  Very possible, in fact, highly probable.  Then Texas will have to sweat out their stellar non-conference win at Wyoming up against OU’s win over BYU and OSU’s win over Georgia… Good Luck.

Odds: 2.5-1

 

3. Oklahoma

Skinny: Sam Bradford came back and most of the skilled positions are intact.  There is some rebuilding on both lines, but that doesn’t matter at OU with one 5-star replacing another.

Why They Will: They were expected to beat Texas, blew a lead, and snuck in the back door to the title game.  This time they get some revenge against the Horns.  An opportunity for a rematch against Florida outside of the state Florida is a good motivator.

Why They Won’t: They don’t beat Texas and with a road schedule that includes visits to Nebraska and Kansas, an additional upset looms.

Odds: 3-1

 

4. USC

Skinny: USC must replace its starting quarterback and eight starters on defense.  There hasn’t been this much uncertainty under Pete Carroll since 2004.  That year USC had some guy named Matt Leinart replace Carson Palmer and proceeded to win the National Title.  Oh joy.

Why They Will: USC continues to reload with the most NFL talent laden roster in college football.  Aaron Corp or true freshmen Matt Barkley will replace Mark Sanchez and the team won’t miss a beat.  A heavy road schedule will boost them in the computers.

Why They Won’t: An early test at Ohio St. is too tough for the new QB.  Additional road games at Oregon and California early in the season could result in potential losses.  A conference loss continues to kill USC in the computers as the Pac 10 round robin schedule does them in again.

Odds: 5-1

 

5. Virginia Tech

Skinny: Plain and simple, the season opener in Atlanta against Alabama is an elimination game for both teams.  The ACC does not have the credibility and a one-loss team will not be ranked ahead of a one-loss SEC or Big 12 team in the computers.

Why They Will: This is finally Tyrod Taylor’s team.  He’s the leader, the man, the quarterback.  After beating Alabama, a non-conference home game against Nebraska could give VT the SOS boost.  The ACC schedule is very manageable with a back-to-back stretch at Georgia Tech and home versus North Carolina to decide the coastal division.

Why They Won’t: They lose to Alabama.  They can run the table after that and finish 12-1, but could you honestly see VT being ranked ahead of the previous four teams mentioned with one-loss?

Odds: 8-1

 

6. California

Skinny: On paper, I don’t think Cal is the sixth best team in the country.  However, these rankings are unknown until about Week 6.  That said I give them the sixth best odds.

Why They Will: Watch some Jahvid Best highlights and decide for yourself.  The biggest game-changer in college football.  He’s always one-step away from an 80-yard run.  The QB issues should be over as Kevin Riley is finally the guy.  The non-conference schedule is manageable and USC comes to Berkeley as well as Oregon State and thorn-in-the side Arizona.  Winning at Oregon to start Pac 10 play could be a booster.

Why They Won’t: Ever since losing at USC in 2005 in a game they outplayed the Trojans and subsequently being snubbed from the Rose Bowl, Cal hasn’t taken the next step as challenger to the Trojans.  There have been upsets (at Arizona in 06) and meltdowns (all of 07) and the inability to beat USC.  If this has been the pattern why would it change?  Plus a road game to start Pac 10 play in Eugene could be a deflator.

Odds: 10-1

 

7. Penn State

Skinny: After Ohio State’s two poor showings in the previous title games, the polls made it perfectly clear to the Big 10 last year: Go Undefeated or Go Home.  Penn St. fell victim to that.  After losing at Iowa by 1 on a game-ending FG, Penn St. fell to 8^th in the BCS standings and didn’t get a sniff of a title shot.  They didn’t lose at home (Florida) or on a neutral field (Oklahoma) but were nowhere to be found in the discussion.  After being pasted by USC in the Rose Bowl, the polls got it right and the Big 10 kept its slower reputation intact.

Why They Will: Darryl Clark is the best player in the Big 10.  Any elite team with a senior quarterback has a shot.  In addition, the schedule should be banned.  8 home games, 4 road games.  Yes, 4.  Ohio State and Iowa travel to Happy Valley.

Why They Won’t: Despite Clark being back, unfortunately for him, he loses his top 3 receivers.  If Penn State slips it’s done.  Don’t be surprised if that final game of the year at Michigan State derails a potential undefeated season.

Odds: 12-1

 

8. Ohio State

Skinny: Terrell Pryor might become the most electric player in college football as the season progresses. Similar to Virginia Tech, when USC visits the Horseshoe in Week 2 it’s an elimination game for the Buckeyes.  Go undefeated or go home.

Why They Will: After being embarrassed by USC last year, this time OSU gets them at home and it’s USC with the quarterback issues.  Survive and advance.  Then it’s cruise control until a visit to the White Out for the Big 10 title against Penn St.

Why They Won’t: The Trojans crush their spirits and manhood once again and all that’s left to play for is another opportunity to get their spirits and manhood crushed again by SC in the Rose Bowl.  Seems to be a theme.

Odds: 15-1

 

9. Oklahoma State

Skinny: If you got on the Texas Tech bandwagon last year, this is your team this year.  They’re strikingly similar.  They have a numbers crushing dual-threat QB (Zack Robinson), the best WR in college football (Dez Bryant) and a 1500-yard back (Kendall Hunter).  This is a team that can score 40-50 a game.  Remember this team finished the regular season only with losses to the big three in the South.

Why They Will: They get a rebuilding Georgia team at home to start the season.  They avoid Kansas and Nebraska with the north schedule.  They should be 7-0 when the Horns come for a visit on Halloween which will be a prime-time affair on ABC.  Sound familiar?  They could be 11-0 when they head to Norman for the final game of the year.  Again, sound familiar?

Why They Won’t: As we learned with Tech last year, undefeated is probably the only way to eclipse the two big ones in the south.  Fair or not, it’s the world we live in.  The one thing that could catapult them above the two is if Georgia is a 9-10 win team.  Then that SOS looks that much better.

Odds: 20-1

 

10. SEC West Winner

Skinny: For you SEC honks, I’m not a hater.  I’m well aware that you have five teams ranked in the preseason top 13.  Just remember these are odds to win it all.  Can any of these teams get past each other?  Then can they get past Florida?  Ole Miss, LSU, and Alabama are the candidates.

Why They Will: Ole Miss beat Florida in the Swamp last year.  They possess the best QB prospect in Jevan Snead and they avoid Florida in the regular season and get Alabama and LSU at home.  LSU gets Florida at home and the winner of that game the last three years has gone on to win it all.  But can they beat them twice?  In addition, they have to go to Oxford and Tuscaloosa.  Alabama has the elimination game against Virginia Tech but there’s no Florida on the schedule, plus LSU at home.  Get out of that gauntlet with one-loss and the rolls could be reversed for the SEC Championship game against an undefeated Florida.

Why They Won’t: Again, who is going to beat Florida?  Also, with the “depth” of the conference can any of these teams avoid an upset?

Odds: 35-1

A list of the three biggest questions facing each Pac 10 team heading into the season

Arizona Wildcats

1. Who’s the quarterback?

Matt Scott or Nick Foles?  Whoever it is one will need to establish itself within the first two games before heading to Iowa.  UA had success with a two QB system before (Keith Smith and Ortege Jenkins went 12-1 in 1998) but traditionally schools struggle without a definitive starter.  It could be the difference between 4 wins and 10 wins.  Whoever it is just needs to find Rob Gronkowski.

2. Can this team build on an 8 win season?

This team has talent and depth and the pressure seems to finally be off Mike Stoops.  The bowl curse is over.  These are now all Stoops’ recruits and the system has been in place.  However, this team has lost to New Mexico and Stanford two straight years so while steps have been taken the Cats have still floundered against lesser teams.  If the team shows any complacency or satisfaction the grumblings could start again.

3. How will this team finish games?

Last year the five losses Arizona suffered were by a combined 28 points.  All five were one possession games in the final two minutes.  Defensive breakdowns cost UA against Oregon State and Stanford and turnovers against New Mexico.  UA must learn to finish games to crack the top third of the conference.

Arizona State Sun Devils

1. Is the offensive line fixed?

Rudy Carpenter took a beating the last two years and whether it’s Danny Sullivan or someone else, the line has to protect the quarterback better.  Coach Erickson’s spread offense is designed for much shorter passes and quicker reads.  We’ll see what happens.  That trip to Athens is the tester.  If Georgia’s defense racks up 5 or 6 sacks, it could set the tone for another long season for the Sun Devil signal caller.

2. The defense will be good, but can it maintain all game?

Dennis Erickson has always had smothering defenses.  Dexter Davis and Lawrence Guy could prove to be a force on the d-line and if freshman Vontaze Burfict (assuming he’s cleared) is as good as advertised, could become a major run stuffer.  Last year’s inept offense led to a lot of poor field position and wearing down in the second half.

3. Could momentum in the desert be shifting?

Arizona State could hold their rivals to the east in check with one phrase: 10 years.  Now it’s ASU who went bowless due to a loss to UA, while the Wildcats went on to win the Vegas Bowl.  If ASU struggles and UA does a repeat performance or improves, that 10 win season in 07 will be a distant memory.  The Tempe faithful will be on edge if the streaks are at two both ways.

California Golden Bears

1. Will Jahvid Best win the Heisman?

Doubtful.  Considering the three Heisman finalists from last year all returned it could be tough for the Cal RB to make it to New York.  You’d have to figure Tim Tebow will be there and the QB from the winner from the Texas-Oklahoma game is a lock as well.  For Best to make it to NY, I think he needs as list 1700 yards and 20 TDs and Cal will have to have at least 10 wins.  The one thing that will play into Best’s favor is that he’ll get the majority of west coast Heisman focus with no USC player at the forefront.

2. Is Kevin Riley ready to solve the QB problems?

Since Aaron Rodgers left the Tedford quarterback phrase doesn’t have the same merit it once did.  Now that (as Bears fans will say) Nate Longshore has expired his 8 years of eligibility it’s Riley’s job to lose.  If he can avoid injury and establish consistency at the position, the Bears can flourish.  If musical quarterbacks continues the Bears will continue to hover around that 6-8 win plateau.

3. Can Cal dethrone USC?

The Bears get them at home.  USC will be breaking in a new quarterback.  Cal will have the best offensive player on the field and USC is replacing 8 starters on defense.  This is the year for the Bears to do it.  They could be favored in the game.  In order to dethrone USC, Cal will have to avoid the upset bug.  Beat the Trojans and the schedule is perfectly aligned for Cal to run the table and get to its first Rose Bowl in 50 years.

Oregon Ducks

1. How will the Chip Kelly era begin?

Mike Belloti build up Nike U into the program it is now.  Chip Kelly takes over and has already tapped the recruiting efforts to SEC territory.  Oregon replaces a lot of starters on both sides of the ball but the one constant is Jeremiah Masoli which will make the transition easier.  Oregon will be fine this season.  What we’ve seen with coaching changes at West Virginia and Wisconsin, first year success with an established quarterback is normal.  What happens after that is where it’ll begin.

2. Can Oregon stop the pass?

The Ducks were dreadful last year against the pass ranking 111^th in the nation.  In the Ducks three losses they surrendered almost 400 yards a game in the air.  Walter Thurmond III is a solid cover corner and playmaker and safety T.J. Ward is a big hitter.  The questions loom.  Boise St. threw for over 400 yards last year in Eugene.  We should know in week one.

3. Will Oregon lead the country in rushing?

Last year the Ducks finished second to Navy in the country on the ground at over 280 yards a game.  Coach Kelly’s spread offense will be ideal for LeGarrette Blount and Jeremiah Masoli to eclipse over 1,000 yards each.  Jeremiah Johnson graduated but he will be replaced by the fast and big LaMichael James.  The Ducks lost their two starting WR’s and if Masoli does not improve his passing ability you could a lot more ground attack.  Either way, 300 yards a game is realistic.

Oregon State Beavers

1. Can the Beavers avoid a bad start?

For some reason, OSU thinks 2-3 is the way to start.  However, there are no road games at Utah or Penn St. on the docket.  OSU should roll through its non-conference schedule with Portland St., at UNLV, and Cincinnati.  Pac 10 play starts with Arizona, at Arizona State, and vs. Stanford.  The Beavers could be 6-0 heading to the Coliseum.  If the Beavers start 3-3 a bowl may not be in the works this season.

2. Is there a QB controversy?

Two seniors, one position.  Lyle Moevao was the starter last year and led the Beavers to a 7-3 record and a Rose Bowl opportunity before injuring his shoulder against Arizona State on November 1^st.  Fellow senior Sean Canfield kept the Rose Bowl dreams alive with a last second win at Arizona.  But Moevao was off the following week in a blowout loss to Oregon to kill the Rose Bowl dreams.  Since then the shoulder has lingered all spring and Canfield won the job.  There will be a short leash but Mike Riley has managed these quarterbacks well over the last two seasons.

3. How will the defense be?

The Beavers lost 8 starters from a defense that ranked 23^rd nationally, 2^nd in the Pac 10, including their entire secondary.  Senior LB Keaton Kristick was a 2^nd team all-conference selection and he possesses the playmaking ability as a run stuffer and pass rusher.  He should eclipse 100 tackles and 5 sacks.  The lack of experience in the secondary could be the backbone of the defense.  Senior CB Tim Clark has most experience having appeared in 26 games, including 6 starts.

Stanford Cardinal

1. Can Stanford finally get to a bowl game?

Six wins is very achievable this season.  The way the schedule sets up though, the Cardinal needs to get off to a good start.  The Cardinal’s season could swing on back-to-back home games against Washington and UCLA.  If the Cardinal sweep they could be 4-1 or 5-0 by the time the killer part of the schedule hits.  In all likelihood Stanford will be an underdog in six of its last seven games.

2. How much of difference will Andrew Luck make to the QB position?

Stanford ranked 103^rd in the nation in passing efficiency last season.  Luck was a highly touted recruit and the coaching staff did not burn his redshirt last year despite the temptation.  At 6-4 225 he possesses the strong arm and size for a future NFL quarterback.  This is clearly his team.  If he struggles, there is still senior Tavita Pritchard waiting in the wings.  However, expect the coaching staff to let Luck continue to blossom and play through the bumps and bruises.

3. Will the secondary be fixed?

Stanford’s front seven accumulated 33 sacks last season, but that didn’t matter.  The secondary only racked up seven interceptions and was burned for numerous big plays.  The coaching staff has switched WR Richard Sherman to CB in hopes of adding some playmakers on that side of the ball.  Each spot is an open competition.

UCLA Bruins

1. Will the offense improve?

It can’t get any worse.  Kevin Craft was awful.  As bad as the quarterback play was, the running game was putrid ranking 116^th in the nation.  Kahlil Bell is gone and Aundre Dean transferred to TCU as well as Raymond Carter to Colorado State.   Norm Chow has the resume as an offensive coordinator but he’ll be starting from scratch.  UCLA stayed the course and kept the redshirt on Kevin Prince.  He won the QB competition early and will get to ride it out.  As for the RB landscape redshirt junior Christian Ramirez will get first crack but this will be by committee all year.

2. Will Chuck Bullough replacing Dewayne Walker make any difference?

Walker was a mainstay as UCLA’s defensive coordinator.  Though statistically it might not say so, Walker’s defense kept the Bruins in a lot of games before wearing down with no offensive support.  Bullough may have the best core of LB’s led by all-conference selection Reggie Carter.  Alterraun Verner, CB, and Brian Price, DL, are both steady forces and all conference performers.  Expect the transition to be a smooth one and for the defense to shoulder the load again this season.

3. Any signs of the monopoly ending?

UCLA has been picked as high as 3^rd and as low as 8^th by experts.  UCLA is not ready to compete with USC.  However, Coach Rick Neuheisel has matched the recruiting efforts establishing a top 20 class and taking some of the players from across the city.  For the optimist, if UCLA can reach at least six wins and remain competitive in each game, the Bruins maybe ready to jump into the top tier of the Pac 10 and challenge their rivals in 2010.  If UCLA remains at the bottom of conference this season, continuing to struggle on offense, it could very well be a full five-year rebuilding process in Westwood.

USC Trojans

1. Is starting Matt Barkley the right move?

I’m not one to question Pete Carroll.  He has had the best program in college football since taking over in LA.  The only thing that surprises me with going with Barkley is he’s going all in.  When you start a true freshmen, there is no going back.  He has told Aaron Corp and Mitch Mustain this is our quarterback for the next three years.  I thought he would certainly want to redshirt Barkley and let the talent sit and save a year, similar to Mark Sanchez.  When you look at the pedigree of USC quarterbacks, if this kid is good enough to start as a true freshmen, he’s the real deal and should be worth the hype.

2. Can USC win the National Championship if they lose in Columbus?

No.  It has nothing to do with not going undefeated.  Even if USC runs the table the rest of the way and finishes 11-1, cracking into the top 2 will be a challenge.  In all likelihood Ohio State will not lose two Big 10 games.  If both teams finish with identical records, don’t expect a Texas-Oklahoma situation.  Speaking of those teams, as has been shown in the polls and computers, the SEC and Big 12 get the benefit of the doubt.  The Trojans only hope would be a rematch with an undefeated Ohio State and the likes of an SEC or Big 12 team looking very unimpressive in their conference title games or two losses.

3. Will USC survive the road tests?

According to preseason rankings, the Trojans face four Top 25 teams on the road.  I wouldn’t be too concerned about Notre Dame.  They have to prove they’re a real program and can match USC’s speed before that’s a marquee game.  However, the other three games the Trojans could be underdogs.  They lost the last time at Autzen, in fact they haven’t worn in the state of Oregon since 2005, and Cal looks like the team that will challenge USC for the Pac 10 crown.  But come on, there’s no way USC is losing four games, can they?

Washington Huskies

1. When will the losing streak end?

The Huskies finally scheduled one cupcake non-conference.  They will beat Idaho in Week 2.  If they somehow lose that game, oh boy, another 0-12 season is very possible.  UW still has non-conference tilts with LSU and Notre Dame.  UW will be an underdog is every game until the Apple Cup.

2. Is Jake Locker ready for a pro-style offense?

Locker is a terrific athlete.  He’s the best athlete at quarterback in the conference (sorry Oregon fan).  However, he’s not a good passer.  It’ll be interesting to see if he’s forced to sit in the pocket and become more of a west coast feed.  USC has traditionally possessed pocket passers but Aaron Corp is a dual threat that may have started if he was healthy.  Locker’s game should not change drastically.

3. Any hope for the defense?

I guess when you’re 0-12 things can only get better right?  The Huskies ranked 110^th in total defense, 115^th in passing, 116^th in scoring, and 119^th in turnovers gained.  Yuck.  A reason for optimism is the return of LB E.J. Savannah from suspension and all four starters back on the defensive line.  So yes, this team could become a top 100 defense.

Washington State Cougars

1. Could this year’s team be worse?

For the loyal fans in the Pullman, this is going to be another long and trying season.  Point blank: this team sucks!  The only thing that saved the Cougars from being the worst team in Pac 10 history was beating Washington.  I wouldn’t expect to see the margins of defeat to be as big as last year.  However, the record could be worse.  Hawaii and SMU are trap games.  Hawaii beat WSU last year and who knows how much improvement June Jones will provide in his second year.  Realistically, 2-10 is a best case scenario and 0-12 is a possibility.

2. Are there any Cougars worth keeping an eye on?

There’s nothing in Alex Rodriguez’s bio on this, so you’re guess is as good as mine.

3. Why the hell should I watch this team?

I’ll give you three reasons: 1) You’re a loyal fan of your team and will enjoy these 3.5 hours of your life, 2) It beats getting kicked in the balls by a mule, 3) It’s kind of like watching college football.