Yes, we know there are 120 FBS schools, but realistically you can cut that down to 66 since only a BCS conference and Notre Dame will play for a title. Let’s go ahead and eliminate the Big East and Notre Dame since neither will run the table, which is what it will take for either to make it. The leaves five BCS conferences. It would be easy to say take the top 2 from each league but do you see two ACC teams making a BCS bowl? Didn’t think so; let’s take a look at the 10:
1. Florida
Skinny: Usually when you win a title and bring back your Heisman Trophy quarterback and all 11 starters on defense, experts think highly of you. This team is just loaded and possess anywhere from 20-30 NFL players.
Why They Will: This is clearly the best team in the country. Even if this team loses a game it will get the benefit of the doubt more than other and won’t fall far in the polls (think Florida State, Charlie Ward and 1993). Also it’s a rebuilding year in the SEC East, so they’re guaranteed nine wins. Plus no Ole Miss or Alabama.
Why They Won’t: They lose a game and two teams go undefeated? Tim Tebow decides to have sex, likes it, no longer has any aggression on the field and they lose four games? I don’t see how this team does not end up in Pasadena.
Odds: 1-2
2. Texas
Skinny: Ok, enough with the BCS tie breaker. I’ve had to hear UT fan whine about this non-stop (especially in my household) all offseason. Let’s state some facts: 1. You lost at Texas Tech, 2. Your non-conference schedule did not match OU’s, 3. If you think the BCS is unjust, then give up your 2005 Rose Bowl trophy and send it to Berkeley.
Why They Will: This is probably Mack Brown’s best defense. It might be Colt McCoy’s turn to win the Heisman. The schedule is very favorable and they’ve gotten over the Oklahoma block by winning 3 of the last 4 meetings.
Why the Won’t: Does anyone see a scenario similar to last year? Beat OU then lose at Oklahoma St., then watch OU beat OSU in Norman in the final game of the year. Very possible, in fact, highly probable. Then Texas will have to sweat out their stellar non-conference win at Wyoming up against OU’s win over BYU and OSU’s win over Georgia… Good Luck.
Odds: 2.5-1
3. Oklahoma
Skinny: Sam Bradford came back and most of the skilled positions are intact. There is some rebuilding on both lines, but that doesn’t matter at OU with one 5-star replacing another.
Why They Will: They were expected to beat Texas, blew a lead, and snuck in the back door to the title game. This time they get some revenge against the Horns. An opportunity for a rematch against Florida outside of the state Florida is a good motivator.
Why They Won’t: They don’t beat Texas and with a road schedule that includes visits to Nebraska and Kansas, an additional upset looms.
Odds: 3-1
4. USC
Skinny: USC must replace its starting quarterback and eight starters on defense. There hasn’t been this much uncertainty under Pete Carroll since 2004. That year USC had some guy named Matt Leinart replace Carson Palmer and proceeded to win the National Title. Oh joy.
Why They Will: USC continues to reload with the most NFL talent laden roster in college football. Aaron Corp or true freshmen Matt Barkley will replace Mark Sanchez and the team won’t miss a beat. A heavy road schedule will boost them in the computers.
Why They Won’t: An early test at Ohio St. is too tough for the new QB. Additional road games at Oregon and California early in the season could result in potential losses. A conference loss continues to kill USC in the computers as the Pac 10 round robin schedule does them in again.
Odds: 5-1
5. Virginia Tech
Skinny: Plain and simple, the season opener in Atlanta against Alabama is an elimination game for both teams. The ACC does not have the credibility and a one-loss team will not be ranked ahead of a one-loss SEC or Big 12 team in the computers.
Why They Will: This is finally Tyrod Taylor’s team. He’s the leader, the man, the quarterback. After beating Alabama, a non-conference home game against Nebraska could give VT the SOS boost. The ACC schedule is very manageable with a back-to-back stretch at Georgia Tech and home versus North Carolina to decide the coastal division.
Why They Won’t: They lose to Alabama. They can run the table after that and finish 12-1, but could you honestly see VT being ranked ahead of the previous four teams mentioned with one-loss?
Odds: 8-1
6. California
Skinny: On paper, I don’t think Cal is the sixth best team in the country. However, these rankings are unknown until about Week 6. That said I give them the sixth best odds.
Why They Will: Watch some Jahvid Best highlights and decide for yourself. The biggest game-changer in college football. He’s always one-step away from an 80-yard run. The QB issues should be over as Kevin Riley is finally the guy. The non-conference schedule is manageable and USC comes to Berkeley as well as Oregon State and thorn-in-the side Arizona. Winning at Oregon to start Pac 10 play could be a booster.
Why They Won’t: Ever since losing at USC in 2005 in a game they outplayed the Trojans and subsequently being snubbed from the Rose Bowl, Cal hasn’t taken the next step as challenger to the Trojans. There have been upsets (at Arizona in 06) and meltdowns (all of 07) and the inability to beat USC. If this has been the pattern why would it change? Plus a road game to start Pac 10 play in Eugene could be a deflator.
Odds: 10-1
7. Penn State
Skinny: After Ohio State’s two poor showings in the previous title games, the polls made it perfectly clear to the Big 10 last year: Go Undefeated or Go Home. Penn St. fell victim to that. After losing at Iowa by 1 on a game-ending FG, Penn St. fell to 8th in the BCS standings and didn’t get a sniff of a title shot. They didn’t lose at home (Florida) or on a neutral field (Oklahoma) but were nowhere to be found in the discussion. After being pasted by USC in the Rose Bowl, the polls got it right and the Big 10 kept its slower reputation intact.
Why They Will: Darryl Clark is the best player in the Big 10. Any elite team with a senior quarterback has a shot. In addition, the schedule should be banned. 8 home games, 4 road games. Yes, 4. Ohio State and Iowa travel to Happy Valley.
Why They Won’t: Despite Clark being back, unfortunately for him, he loses his top 3 receivers. If Penn State slips it’s done. Don’t be surprised if that final game of the year at Michigan State derails a potential undefeated season.
Odds: 12-1
8. Ohio State
Skinny: Terrell Pryor might become the most electric player in college football as the season progresses. Similar to Virginia Tech, when USC visits the Horseshoe in Week 2 it’s an elimination game for the Buckeyes. Go undefeated or go home.
Why They Will: After being embarrassed by USC last year, this time OSU gets them at home and it’s USC with the quarterback issues. Survive and advance. Then it’s cruise control until a visit to the White Out for the Big 10 title against Penn St.
Why They Won’t: The Trojans crush their spirits and manhood once again and all that’s left to play for is another opportunity to get their spirits and manhood crushed again by SC in the Rose Bowl. Seems to be a theme.
Odds: 15-1
9. Oklahoma State
Skinny: If you got on the Texas Tech bandwagon last year, this is your team this year. They’re strikingly similar. They have a numbers crushing dual-threat QB (Zack Robinson), the best WR in college football (Dez Bryant) and a 1500-yard back (Kendall Hunter). This is a team that can score 40-50 a game. Remember this team finished the regular season only with losses to the big three in the South.
Why They Will: They get a rebuilding Georgia team at home to start the season. They avoid Kansas and Nebraska with the north schedule. They should be 7-0 when the Horns come for a visit on Halloween which will be a prime-time affair on ABC. Sound familiar? They could be 11-0 when they head to Norman for the final game of the year. Again, sound familiar?
Why They Won’t: As we learned with Tech last year, undefeated is probably the only way to eclipse the two big ones in the south. Fair or not, it’s the world we live in. The one thing that could catapult them above the two is if Georgia is a 9-10 win team. Then that SOS looks that much better.
Odds: 20-1
10. SEC West Winner
Skinny: For you SEC honks, I’m not a hater. I’m well aware that you have five teams ranked in the preseason top 13. Just remember these are odds to win it all. Can any of these teams get past each other? Then can they get past Florida? Ole Miss, LSU, and Alabama are the candidates.
Why They Will: Ole Miss beat Florida in the Swamp last year. They possess the best QB prospect in Jevan Snead and they avoid Florida in the regular season and get Alabama and LSU at home. LSU gets Florida at home and the winner of that game the last three years has gone on to win it all. But can they beat them twice? In addition, they have to go to Oxford and Tuscaloosa. Alabama has the elimination game against Virginia Tech but there’s no Florida on the schedule, plus LSU at home. Get out of that gauntlet with one-loss and the rolls could be reversed for the SEC Championship game against an undefeated Florida.
Why They Won’t: Again, who is going to beat Florida? Also, with the “depth” of the conference can any of these teams avoid an upset?
Odds: 35-1